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本文通过一个具有风险约束的内生经济增长理论对政府防减灾支出与灾害控制、防减灾支出与经济增长之间的关系进行设定,利用不确定性条件下的预期效用和风险决策原理建立了一个两期的防减灾支出与经济增长模型,并以1990-2009年的中国灾害损失与经济发展数据为例进行实证检验。本文的结论是,在满足风险预期的约束条件和灾害总成本最小化的目标控制过程中,政府的防减灾投资支出存在最优的规模效应,适当水平的防减灾投资支出可以有效控制灾害损失;但是防减灾投资支出对当前以及近期资本存量积累和消费预期的影响程度在我国十分有限,政府的最优决策行为应该是在兼顾经济发展的同时注重防减灾工作,一个完整而且有效的灾害管理体系应该将有限的社会资源在一般性的固定资产投资和预防性的防减灾投资之间进行合理分配并鼓励个人积极参与防减灾过程。
In this paper, a risk-constrained endogenous economic growth theory is used to set the relationship between government expenditure on disaster prevention and disaster control, expenditure on disaster prevention and economic growth, using the expected utility and risk decision-making under uncertainty conditions A two-stage model for prevention and control of disasters and economic growth, and empirical tests were conducted using the data of disaster losses and economic development in China during 1990-2009 as an example. The conclusion of this paper is that in the process of target control to meet the constraints of risk expectation and minimize the total cost of disaster, the government has the optimal scale effect on the spending on investment for disaster prevention and mitigation, and the appropriate level of investment in disaster prevention and mitigation can effectively control the disaster loss. However, the effect of investment prevention on disaster prevention on the current and recent capital stock accumulation and consumption expectancy is very limited in our country. The government’s optimal decision-making behavior should pay attention to disaster prevention while taking economic development into consideration. A complete and effective disaster management system The limited social resources should be rationally distributed between general fixed asset investment and preventive disaster prevention investment, and individuals should be encouraged to actively participate in the disaster prevention process.