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目的在分层随机抽样下,为敏感性问题提供科学的调查方法及其统计量的计算公式。方法应用敏感问题随机应答技术的Simmons模型、分层随机抽样调查方法、Cochran’s的抽样理论、全概率公式、方差的基本性质等理论和方法进行公式推导。结果推导出敏感问题Simmons模型在分层随机抽样下总体比例的估计量及其估计方差的计算公式;成功地应用该方法及相关公式调查估计得苏州大学新校区本科生和研究生婚前性行为的发生比例分别为14.90%和31.94%,总体比例为20.86%;将样本比例与效度准则指标比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论敏感问题随机应答技术Simmons模型的分层随机抽样方法及相应统计量的计算公式科学有效。
Objective To provide a scientific investigation method and formula for calculating statistics for sensitive issues under stratified random sampling. Methods Applying the Simmons model, stochastic random sampling method, the sampling theory of Cochran’s, the total probability formula, the basic properties of variance and other methods to derive the formula, Results The estimated proportion of the overall proportion of the sensitive problem Simmons model under stratified random sampling and the formula of its estimation variance were deduced. The successful application of this method and related formulas to investigate the pre-marital sexual behavior of undergraduates and graduate students in the new campus of Suzhou University The proportions were 14.90% and 31.94%, respectively. The overall proportion was 20.86%. There was no significant difference between the sample proportion and the validity criterion (P> 0.05). Conclusion Stochastic sampling method of stochastic answering technology Simmons model and the formula of corresponding statistics are sensitive and scientific.