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从制约我国外贸发展的短期和中长期因素来看,2013年我国进出口仍将低位增长,增速恐难达两位数。虽然随着各国宏观政策力度加大,全球经济发展环境可能略好于上年,国内经济运行也将总体平稳。但国际、国内依然存在各种风险因素,世界经济复苏依然存在诸多不确定性,外需不足的矛盾仍难根本缓解,全球流动性宽松和贸易保护的风险有可能加剧。由于影响外贸进出口的不确定、不稳定因素并没有出现大的变化,决定了新的一年外部需求难有大的起色。一、外贸进出口低速增长,结构出现一定变化1.进出口逐季回落。
In terms of the short-term and long-term factors that constrain the development of China’s foreign trade, China’s import and export will still have a low growth rate in 2013, a double-digit growth rate. Although the global economic development environment may be slightly better than the previous year with the intensification of macroeconomic policies of all countries, the domestic economic operation will also be generally stable. However, various international and domestic risk factors still exist. There are still many uncertainties in the recovery of the world economy. The contradiction between external demand and demand remains elusive. Global liquidity easing and trade protection risks are likely to intensify. Due to the uncertainty and instability that affect the import and export of foreign trade, no major changes have taken place and it is difficult to make a big improvement in the external demand in the new year. First, the rapid growth of foreign trade import and export, the structure of a certain change 1. Import and export down quarter by quarter.