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利用四川省1961-2014年147个地面气象站逐日观测资料与四川省春玉米观测资料,运用气象干旱对农业影响评估综合指数,建立四川省春玉米生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性模型,研究了四川省春玉米播种-出苗期、拔节-孕穗期、抽雄开花-吐丝期、乳熟-完熟期及全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性空间分布特征.结果表明:春玉米需水关键期发生特、重、中、轻概率的空间分布不同;春玉米抽雄开花-吐丝期气象干旱致灾因子危险性较大,拔节-孕穗期次之,播种-出苗期较小;春玉米全生育期气象干旱致灾因子危险性盆西北至资阳北部较高,高原西南部河谷地带次之,盆地西南部、凉山州东北部较低.
Based on the daily observation data of 147 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2014 and the observation data of spring maize in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2014 in Sichuan Province and using the synthetic index of meteorological drought to agricultural impact assessment to establish the hazard model of meteorological drought hazard in spring maize growth season in Sichuan Province, The spatial distribution characteristics of hazard factors of meteorological drought in spring maize sowing-jointing stage, jointing-booting stage, tasseled flowering-silking stage, milk ripening-maturing stage and whole growth stage in Sichuan Province were studied. The results showed that: The spatial distribution of special, heavy, medium and light probability occurred in different periods. Spring maize tasted flowering and flowering - the risk of meteorological drought hazard was greater during silking stage, followed by jointing and booting stages, and smaller in sowing and emergence stage. Dangerous weather hazard factors of drought during the growing period are from northwest to the north of Ziyang, followed by the valley in the southwest of the plateau, southwest of the basin and northeast of Liangshan Prefecture.