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Markov模型是以俄国数学家A.A.Markov命名的数学方法。在卫生管理中,可以用Markov模型预测医疗器械、药品市场占有率,药品的期望利润收益等。近来年又用其预测某些传染病的流行趋势。本文将1965～1997年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的发病率划分为4个不同状态,应用Markov模型对其今后5年的流行趋势进行预测。1 材料与方法1.1 资料来源:HFRS(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrom)的疫情资料来源于桦甸市卫生防疫站1965～1998年《急性传染病月年报表》;1.2 Markov模型是一种非参数的离散型时间序列分析方法。
The Markov model is a mathematical method named after the Russian mathematician A.A. Markov. In health management, the Markov model can be used to predict the market share of medical devices and pharmaceuticals and the expected profits of pharmaceuticals. In recent years, it has also used it to predict the epidemic trend of certain infectious diseases. In this paper, the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) from 1965 to 1997 was divided into four different states. The Markov model was used to predict the epidemic trend of HFRS in the next 5 years. 1 Materials and Methods 1.1 Source: The epidemic data of HFRS (hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrom) come from the monthly report of acute infectious diseases of Huadian Municipal Health and Epidemic Prevention Station from 1965 to 1998. 1.2 The Markov model is a nonparametric discrete Time Series Analysis Method.