以火灾风险影响因素中的火灾发生起数为研究对象,利用样本周期图法分析了城市火灾时间序列的周期性,并实例分析得出了北京市火灾时间序列具有12个月的周期性;然后采用季节调整法,将火灾时间序列中的季节因子和不规则因子提取出来,得出了经季节调整后的火灾时间序列,从而得到了火灾发生受季节因素的影响大小和城市火灾时间序列的基本态势。其结果可以为有针对性的进行消防监督管理提供一定的科学依据,并可用于指导消防执勤战备。 Taking the number of fire occurrences as the influential factors of fire risk as the research object, the periodicity of the city fire time series was analyzed by using the sample periodogram method. The case analysis was made to show that the fire time series in Beijing has a 12-month periodicity. Then Seasonal adjustment method is used to extract the seasonal factors and irregular factors from the fire time series, and the seasonally adjusted fire time series is obtained. The seasonal variation of fire occurrence and the time sequence of urban fire are obtained situation. The result can provide some scientific basis for targeted fire supervision and management, and can be used to guide the fire on duty duty readiness.