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股票全流通对A股的估值体系有较为明显的冲击,沪深300的托宾Q估值从2007年底高点的4.43滑落到目前的1.21,距离托宾Q的理论均衡值仅一步之遥。中小板流通市值占比54%,创业板流通市值占比37%,两者全流通程度依然偏低,中小板托宾Q值从2007年底的5.1下滑到目前的2.27,未来中小板和创业板的托宾Q值依然存在继续下行的压力。托宾Q值低于临界值1意味着金融资产的价值低于企业重置成本,即金融资产被低估,这是兼并重组的温床。目前,我国托宾Q值低于1的行业如钢铁、建筑建材、房地产等行业在2013年的并购重组将显著增加。整体看,A股整体估值水平在合理的区间,但各行业全流通进程参差不齐,行业的托宾Q值分化较大。
The full circulation of shares has a relatively obvious impact on the valuation of A shares. The Tobin’s Q index of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 slipped from 4.43 at the end of 2007 to 1.21 at present, only one step away from the theoretical equilibrium value of Tobin’s Q . SME board market capitalization accounted for 54%, the GEM market capitalization accounted for 37%, both the degree of full circulation is still low, small board Tobin Q value from the end of 2007 slid 5.1 to the current 2.27, the future of small plates and GEM Tobin Q value continues to pressure downward. Tobin Q value below the threshold of 1 means that the value of financial assets is lower than the cost of replacement of enterprises, that is, financial assets are undervalued, which is a hotbed of mergers and acquisitions. At present, China’s Tobin Q value below 1 in industries such as steel, building materials, real estate and other industries in 2013 mergers and acquisitions will significantly increase. Overall, the overall valuation of A shares in a reasonable range, but the process of the entire circulation is uneven, the industry’s Tobin Q value differentiation.