根据实际数据和统计学原理对当前和未来中国移动通信终端市场的需求和供给进行了分析。分析结果表明,预期的中国移动用户的饱和时间大约是2014年,饱和时的普及率是69.7%,移动用户总数是9.1亿,届时手机的年需求量将达到4.5亿部。分析也表明,1999～2006年“黑手机”所占市场份额为29%,而且有增长的趋势。 According to the actual data and statistical principles of the current and future China’s mobile communications terminal market demand and supply were analyzed. The analysis shows that the expected saturation time of China’s mobile subscribers is about 2014, the penetration rate at saturation is 69.7%, and the total number of mobile subscribers is 910 million. At that time, the annual demand of handsets will reach 450 million. Analysis also shows that from 1999 to 2006 “black phone ” share of 29%, and there is a growing trend.