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基于协整理论,利用1978-2007年的时间序列数据,从城镇居民和农村居民人均消费支出角度,通过构建四变量VAR模型,分析了经济增长及宏观调控对我国居民消费的效应。研究结果表明:居民收入是影响居民消费的主要因素;不确定性的增加对居民消费具有抑制作用;经济增长对我国居民消费产生正向效应,但影响不明显;宏观调控对于农村居民消费的影响大于城镇居民,其中政府支出对我国居民消费影响主要表现为挤入效应,而利率的收入效应大于替代效应;最后,适度的通货膨胀有利于促进居民消费。
Based on the cointegration theory and using the time series data from 1978 to 2007, this paper constructs a four-variable VAR model from the perspective of per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents and rural residents and analyzes the effects of economic growth and macro-control on household consumption in China. The results show that: household income is the main factor affecting residents’ consumption; the increase of uncertainty has an inhibitory effect on household consumption; the economic growth has a positive effect on household consumption in our country, but the effect is not obvious; the impact of macro-control on rural household consumption Which is greater than that of urban residents. Among them, the influence of government expenditure on the consumption of residents in our country is mainly crowding-in effect, while the income effect of interest rate is greater than the substitution effect. Finally, modest inflation helps to promote the consumption of residents.