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本文使用42个发达工业化国家和新兴经济体国家2000～2010年的经济数据,采用面板门槛模型估计不同国家财政政策对经常账户的影响,检验李嘉图等价效应成立的条件。估计结果显示,财政政策与经常账户表现出“双赤字”现象,但政府债务规模对消费与投资的扭曲作用使得财政赤字与经常账户又呈现非线性关系。同时,较高的税负水平对财政政策效果的影响是导致李嘉图等价效应成立的重要条件。本文的结论表明,我国长期实施的扩张性财政政策对经常账户平衡的不利影响已经开始显现。因此,实施审慎的宏观财政政策、降低税负水平对维持经常账户平衡和经济健康发展具有重要的战略意义。
In this paper, economic data of 42 developed industrialized countries and emerging economies from 2000 to 2010 are used to estimate the impact of different countries’ fiscal policies on the current account using the panel threshold model to test the conditions for the establishment of Ricardo’s equivalent effect. The estimation shows that the fiscal policy and the current account show a “double-deficit” phenomenon. However, the distorting effect of the government debt scale on consumption and investment renders the fiscal deficit non-linear with the current account. At the same time, the effect of higher tax burden on the effect of fiscal policy is an important condition that led to the establishment of Ricardo’s equivalent effect. The conclusion of this paper shows that the unfavorable impact of the long-term implementation of the expansionary fiscal policy on the balance of the current account has begun to appear. Therefore, the implementation of prudent macro-fiscal policies and the reduction of tax burden levels are of strategic importance for maintaining the balance of the current account and the healthy economic development.