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本文结合陕西省内南水北调工程,针对规划水平年2020年和2030年,从仅有当地供水系统供水和南水北调供水系统供水两个方面,以缺水率和缺水指数为评估指标进行研究。对南水北调供水系统,分别考虑建立当仅有三河口水库单独供水、黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水两种方案,当采用黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水时,以南水北调可调水量限制条件分情景一:可调水量10亿m3;情景二:可调水量15.5亿m3进行探讨。研究结果表明:当仅有当地供水系统供水时,受水区内水资源供需紧张;当以南水北调供水系统仅考虑三河口水库供水时,受水区内缺水状况依然存在,当以可调水量10亿m3黄金峡水库和三河口水库联合供水时,年缺水指数由2020年的3.17增加到2030年的8.18,水资源供需状况依然紧张,以可调水量15.5亿m3供水时年缺水指数由2020年的0.82增加到2030年的3.31,较情景一年缺水指数已有改善。可见,以可调水量15.5亿m3供水时,2020年基本可以满足需水要求,但2030年后供需矛盾仍然突出,必须安排新的水源以满足后期增加的水资源需求。
In this paper, we combine the project of South-to-North Water Diversion in Shaanxi Province with two indicators of water supply of local water supply system and water supply system of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in 2020 and 2030 respectively. For the water supply system of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, two schemes are proposed: when only the Sanhekou Reservoir is provided with water supply alone, the Huangjinxia Reservoir and the Sanhekou Reservoir are jointly supplied with water. When Huangjinxia Reservoir and Sanhekou Reservoir are jointly supplied with water, Scenario 1: Adjustable water volume of 1 billion m3; Scenario 2: Adjustable water volume of 1.55 billion m3. The results show that when only the local water supply system supplies water, the water supply and demand in the water receiving area is very tight. When the water supply system in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project only considers the water supply of Sanhekou Reservoir, the water shortage in the receiving area still exists. When the combined water supply of 1 billion m3 of Huangjinxia Reservoir and Sanhekou Reservoir is increased, the annual water shortage index will increase from 3.17 in 2020 to 8.18 in 2030, and the water supply and demand will remain tense. With the annual water shortage index of 1.55 billion m3 of adjustable water supply From 0.82 in 2020 to 3.31 in 2030, the water shortage index has improved over the one-year scenario. It can be seen that the water demand will be basically met by 2020 when the water with an adjustable water volume of 1.55 billion m3 can be supplied. However, the contradiction between supply and demand remains outstanding after 2030, and new water sources must be arranged to meet the increased water demand in the later period.