基于灰色拓扑预测理论方法,对我国火灾发生情况进行了分析预测。在对我国55年(1950-2004年)火灾统计资料时序分布特征分析的基础上,选取一组阈值,建立不同阈值所对应的时间序列的GM(1,1)模型群,用此模型群对未来可能出现一定阈值范围内火灾起数的年份进行了预测,并运用预测失效点非唯一性原理绘制了拓扑预测曲线。经精度检验,所建模型群的精度为一级,具有较好的可靠性和实用性。 Based on the theory of gray topological prediction, the fire situation in our country is analyzed and predicted. Based on the analysis of temporal distribution of fire statistics data in China for 55 years (1950-2004), a set of thresholds are selected to establish a GM (1,1) model group with different time series corresponding to different thresholds. Using this model group pair In the future, it is predicted that the number of fires in a certain threshold range will be predicted and the topological prediction curve will be drawn based on the non-uniqueness principle of predicted failure point. The accuracy test, the accuracy of the model group is a level, with good reliability and practicality.