在20世纪90年代末伴随着以建立现代企业制度为目标的国有企业改革,我国出现了严重的职工下岗潮和失业率攀升的现象,但并不意味着国有企业改革必然导致职工下岗潮。20世纪末我国出现的下岗潮是由多方面的原因造成的。与当时情况相比,目前国有企业职工总数、冗余职工、需要下岗分流的职工人数都已大量减少,我国产业结构已经明显优化,经济增长创造就业岗位的能力显著提高,第二、三产业就业岗位的弹性系数较大,拉动就业的能力更强,非公有制经济吸纳再就业的能力也显著提升。同时,城镇新进入劳动力市场的新增人口不断减少,刘易斯拐点和民工荒的出现,表明就业市场供需关系已经发生了显著改变。该文通过分析认为,我国新一轮国有企业改革不会导致职工下岗潮和失业率攀升。最后,该文提出了应分步骤、分时段、分区域渐进性的推进新一轮国有企业改革,兼顾就业市场供需平衡,着重推动创新创业以增加就业岗位,维护就业市场稳定的政策建议。 In the late 1990s, along with the reform of state-owned enterprises aimed at setting up a modern enterprise system, there was a serious tide of worker lay-off and rising unemployment in China. However, this does not mean that the reform of state-owned enterprises will inevitably lead to the downsizing of workers. The laid-off tide in our country at the end of the 20th century was caused by many reasons. Compared with the situation at that time, the number of workers and staff in redundant state-owned enterprises, laid-off workers and laid-off workers in the state-owned enterprises has been greatly reduced. The industrial structure in China has been remarkably optimized. The economic growth has significantly improved the ability to create jobs. The employment in the secondary and tertiary industries The larger the flexibility coefficient of posts, the more capable of stimulating employment, and the greater capability of the non-public-owned economy to absorb and re-employ. In the meantime, the new population newly added to the labor market in cities and towns has been declining. The emergence of the Lewis turning point and the shortage of migrant workers have shown that the supply-demand relationship in the employment market has changed significantly. The article analyzes that the new round of state-owned enterprise reform in our country will not lead to the rise of workers’ laid-off and unemployment rate. Finally, the paper proposes policy suggestions on pushing forward the new round of state-owned enterprise reform in a step-by-step, time-based and sub-regional manner, giving consideration to the balance between supply and demand in the employment market, focusing on promoting innovation and entrepreneurship to increase employment opportunities and safeguarding the stability of the employment market.