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如果房地产市场硬着陆,地方债的风险将会暴露出来,银行风险同样会暴露,将引起一系列的不可预见的多米诺骨牌效应。2012年春节过后,龙年楼市的走势是“飞龙在天”还是“亢龙有悔”再次走入人们视界,北京一些开发企业倒闭的消息,传遍了世界。同时,在走势方面,学者和研究机构对于今年降幅的底线和笔者去年所预设的底线20%基本类似。耶鲁大学教授陈志武日前称,“房地产业在过去八年大起大落,未来几个月会继续下跌,但如果跌幅超过20%或更多,调控就会转换方向,下半年情况就会不同。”为何是20%?“这只是一个上限,也许未必跌到这么多政策就会发生变化了。20%是根据过去几年的经验判断得来,是政府能承受的一个限度。”同时,陈志武称,“预计在今年暑假前后就会出现实质性松动。”
If the real estate market is hard to land, the risk of local debt will be exposed and exposure of bank risks will also trigger a series of unforeseen domino effects. After the Spring Festival in 2012, the trend of the Lunar New Year property market is “dragon in the sky ” or “Kang Long regret ” again into people’s vision, the news of the closure of some development enterprises in Beijing, spread all over the world. Meanwhile, on the downside, the bottom line for scholars and research institutions for this year’s decline is basically similar to 20% of the bottom line set by the author last year. Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Yale University, recently said: “The real estate industry has seen great ups and downs in the past eight years and will continue to decline in the coming months. However, if the decline is more than 20% or more, regulation will shift direction and the situation will change in the second half of the year.” “ Why is it 20%? ”“ This is just an upper limit, and maybe it will not change until so many policies have changed. 20% is based on the experience of the past few years and is a limit that the government can afford. ”Meanwhile, Chen Zhiwu said, “Expected to be substantially loose before and after the summer of this year. ”