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从传统的Solow增长模型的视角看,资本积累与政府政策对于经济的长期增长都是无效的。但是从内生增长理论的视角看,资本积累(特别是设备投资)和经济开放程度都是长期经济增长最重要的决定因素。长期以来,中国保持高速持续发展的策略主要集中于在市场化进程和贸易开放进程中鼓励投资,以及最近实行的鼓励出口,这一策略允许从更为发达的国家进口研发密集型的机器设备。在这个背景下,本文的目的在于探讨设备投资与出口是否如内生增长理论模型所言对经济增长具有长期的效应,或者相反,如传统的增长模型所言对中国的经济增长没有解释力。除此之外,我们还检验了设备投资、出口和产出在长期和短期的本质联系。在方法上,我们采用了协整VAR模型。我们的发现为设备投资和出口都是导致中国过去数十年中高速发展的重要因素这一观点提供了证据。
From the perspective of the traditional Solow growth model, both capital accumulation and government policies are ineffective for long-term economic growth. However, from the perspective of endogenous growth theory, capital accumulation (especially equipment investment) and the degree of economic openness are the most important determinants of long-term economic growth. For a long time, China’s strategy of maintaining rapid and sustained growth has focused on encouraging investment in the process of marketization and trade liberalization, as well as the recent encouragement of exports, a strategy that allows the import of R & D intensive machinery and equipment from more developed countries. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether equipment investment and exports have a long-term effect on economic growth as stated in the endogenous growth theory model or, conversely, as explained by traditional growth models for China’s economic growth. In addition, we examine the essential long-term and short-term nature of equipment investment, exports and output. Methodically, we use a cointegrated VAR model. Our findings provide evidence that investment in equipment and exports are both important factors that have led to rapid growth in China over the past decades.