本文根据某地区历年来水稻稻瘟病发生程度的历史资料，应用马尔可夫链理论与方法，对该地区１９９１年～１９９５年该病害发生程度进行了预测。经分析比较，其结果与实际相符，而且预报时间早、简单易行。这表明马尔可夫链预测模型在农业病虫害预报乃至农业上各种灾变预报中应用的潜在价值。 Based on the historical data of rice blast occurrence over the years in a region, this paper predicts the occurrence degree of the disease from 1991 to 1995 by using Markov chain theory and method. After analysis and comparison, the results are consistent with the actual, and the forecast time is early, simple and easy. This indicates the potential value of Markov chain prediction model in agricultural pest prediction and agricultural disaster prediction.