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出口型企业在我国经济建设和发展中起着举足轻重的作用。金融危机爆发以来,我国出口型企业遭受了巨大的冲击,2009年的出口贸易首次在改革开放之后出现了负增长。这使得企业界和理论界开始高度重视和认真思考如何预防、减轻甚至杜绝危机的问题。本文首先分析了出口型企业的危机来源和分类,然后对危机监测、危机评估、危机预警、危机预控等理论的研究现状进行了综述,接着基于危机管理理论和系统管理理论建构了企业危机预警系统。该系统模型可以应用于出口型企业、行业协会和政府有关监管部门,有利于提高出口型企业应对危机的能力、水平和效率。
Export-oriented enterprises play an important role in the economic construction and development of our country. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, China's export-oriented enterprises have suffered a tremendous impact. For the first time in 2009, the export trade experienced a negative growth after the reform and opening up. This makes the business and theorists begin to attach great importance and seriously consider how to prevent, mitigate or even eliminate the crisis. This article first analyzes the sources and categories of crisis in export-oriented enterprises, and then summarizes the research status quo of crisis monitoring, crisis assessment, crisis warning and crisis forecasting, and then constructs the early warning of corporate crisis based on crisis management theory and system management theory system. The system model can be applied to export-oriented enterprises, industry associations and government-related regulatory authorities, which will help improve the ability, level and efficiency of export-oriented enterprises to cope with the crisis.