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美洲自由贸易区没有在2005年如期完成相关的谈判。尽管人们对其最终模式存在着各种各样的看法,但美洲自由贸易区将最终建成已成为共识。作为全球经济规模最大、第一个南北合作的一体化组织,美洲自由贸易区必定会对世界经济和区域经济产生一定的影响。本文从东亚同美洲的经贸关系入手,借助美洲开发银行、亚洲开发银行GTAP模型的研究结果,分析美洲自由贸易区对东亚经济可能产生的影响,并着重分析和评估不应忽略的一些因素。
The Free Trade Area of the Americas did not complete the relevant negotiations as scheduled in 2005. Despite the various opinions that people have about its final model, it has become a consensus that the Free Trade Area of the Americas will eventually be built. As the world’s largest and most first integrated organization for North-South cooperation, the Free Trade Area of the Americas will surely exert some influence on the world economy and the regional economy. This article starts with the economic and trade relations between East Asia and the Americas. Based on the findings of the GTAP model of the Inter-American Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank, this paper analyzes the possible impact of the Free Trade Area of the Americas on East Asian economies. It also analyzes and assesses some factors that should not be neglected.