中国如何估计98下半年形势?亚洲金融危机至今将近一年,迄今余波未了。中国紧邻风暴中心,对其负面影响尤其在进出口贸易和外资方面,更加引起警觉,其原因有三:一是受这场金融危机危害最大的东盟、韩国和日本,都是中国重要的贸易伙伴,金融危机使得这些国家和地区经济增长放慢、国际收支能力下降、进口需求减少,因而使中国对这些国家的出口直接受到影响;二是中国周边一些国家和地区的货币纷纷贬值,造成人民币相对升值,从而可能削弱中国 How does China estimate the situation in the second half of 1998? The Asian financial crisis has lasted nearly a year so far, so far. China is in the immediate vicinity of the storm center and is even more alarmed by its negative impact, especially on import and export trade and foreign investment. There are three reasons for this: First, ASEAN, South Korea and Japan, hardest hit by this financial crisis, are both China’s major trading partners, As a result of the financial crisis, the economic growth in these countries and regions has been slowed down. Their ability to balance the international payments has declined and their import demand has dropped. As a result, China’s exports to these countries have been directly affected. Second, the currencies in some countries and regions around China have devalued one after another, Appreciation, which may weaken China