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前言近几年我国养老保险制度一些深层次问题曰益突出,特别是养老金缺口不断扩大,已严重阻碍了改革的顺利进行。在这种背景下,研究开发和广泛利用养老保险基金收支预警系统,为决策提供依据十分必要。本课题为国家发改委课题“中国基本养老保险预测预警系统”的分课题之一,在研究养老保险预警方法的基础上,提出了较为完整的养老保险预警指标体系,通过德尔菲法确定了养老保险基金收支的警情指标和警限,借助预警理论、计算机技术和养老保险理论,开发完成了养老保险基金收支预警系统软件,并利用我国某城市养老保险实际数据,对该市2020年以前各年统筹及个人账户基金收支进行了预警,根据预警结果提出了化解风险的合理建议。
Preface In recent years, some deep-seated problems in China’s pension insurance system have become increasingly prominent. In particular, the growing pension gap has seriously hindered the smooth progress of the reform. In this context, research and development and extensive use of the pension insurance fund early warning system, to provide the basis for decision-making is necessary. This topic is one of the sub-topics of National Development and Reform Commission’s topic “China’s basic old-age insurance forecasting and early warning system ”. On the basis of studying the early-warning method of endowment insurance, a more complete early-warning index system for endowment insurance is proposed. By Delphi method, Endowment insurance funds income and expenditure police indicators and warnings, with the help of early warning theory, computer technology and pension insurance theory, the development and completion of the pension insurance fund early-warning system software, and use the actual data of a city pension in China, 2020 In the past years, the fund balance of the co-ordination and individual account funds was pre-warded. Based on the results of the early warning, reasonable suggestions for resolving the risks were put forward.