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目的评估2016年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,预计5月全国报告事件数和病例数将继续呈上升态势,可能达到全年最高峰。近期我国仍有可能出现寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病的输入性病例,广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等重点省份存在输入后发生本地传播的可能。全国手足口病流行强度将逐渐进入高峰,重症和死亡病例将逐渐增多。人感染禽流感疫情仍可能呈散发态势。食物中毒事件将逐渐上升。结论 2016年5月我国的突发公共卫生事件可能达到全年的最高峰;需重点关注伊蚊媒介传染病(如寨卡病毒病、登革热、黄热病、基孔肯雅热)和手足口病所引发的公共卫生风险。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in May 2016 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results Based on the monitoring data of previous infectious diseases and public health emergencies, it is estimated that the number of national reported incidents and cases in May will continue to rise and may reach the peak of the year. Recently, there may still be imported cases of Zika virus disease, dengue fever, yellow fever disease and Chikungunya fever in some key provinces such as Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang. The possibility of local communication. National hand, foot and mouth disease epidemic intensity will gradually enter the peak, severe cases and deaths will gradually increase. People infected with bird flu may still be epidemic situation. Food poisoning will gradually rise. Conclusions China’s public health emergencies may reach the peak of the whole year in May 2016; the focus should be on infectious diseases of Aedes mosquitoes (such as Zika virus disease, dengue fever, yellow fever and Chikungunya) and hand-foot-mouth Public health risks from illness.