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地震,至少中国大陆许多中强以上地震,是有前兆的。这一点已逐渐被大部分地震学者所接受,而前兆的复杂性则成了当前地震预报探索的中心议题。这反映了科学探索的进展。在此情况下,进一步研究前兆现象的规律,特别是从观测和预报的实际资料中去伪存真,更准确地提取各地区地震前兆的基本特征,仍然是一项极重要的基础性工作。它为进一步确定前兆信息、探索孕震过程和前兆机理,进行实验和理论研究,制定切实可行的实现地震预报的科学思路和技术途径均有重要意义。本文仅对华北地区中强以上地震前兆的基本特征进行探讨。
Earthquakes, at least in many Chinese mainland strong earthquakes, is a precursor. This has gradually been accepted by most seismologists, and the complexity of precursors has become the central issue in the exploration of earthquake prediction. This reflects the progress of scientific exploration. Under such circumstances, it is still an extremely important basic work to further study the laws of precursor phenomena, especially to remove falsehood from the actual data of observation and prediction and to accurately extract the basic characteristics of earthquake precursors in various regions. It is of great significance to further determine the precursory information, to explore the seismogenic process and precursory mechanism, to carry out experimental and theoretical studies, and to formulate feasible scientific ideas and technical approaches for earthquake prediction. This paper only discusses the basic characteristics of the precursors above mid-strong earthquakes in North China.