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近几年,我国小宗农产品价格异常波动,引起了社会广泛关注。本文以绿豆为例,根据HP和BP滤波方法分析价格波动的特征,利用ARIMA模型预测绿豆价格的短期走势,在此基础上提出稳定绿豆等小宗农产品价格的建议。
In recent years, abnormal fluctuations in the prices of China’s small agricultural products have aroused widespread public concern. Taking mung bean as an example, this paper analyzes the characteristics of price fluctuation according to HP and BP filtering methods, predicts the short-term trend of mung bean price by using ARIMA model, and puts forward some suggestions to stabilize mung bean and other small-scale agricultural products.