我国机关事业单位养老保险改革将影响养老金的财政支出。本文通过对新政的政策分析,建立精算模型,测算改革前后养老金财政支出缩减额及缩减比例。研究发现,养老金支出缩减额随着职工逐年退休而增大,且当“新人”及“新中人”全部退休时缩减额达到最大;缩减比例逐年小幅降低,相对稳定。可见,改革可减少养老金财政支出,实现养老金待遇的平稳过渡,对应对人口老龄化带来的养老金支出压力具有积极作用。 China’s pension insurance reform institutions will affect the pension expenditure. Through the policy analysis of the New Deal, this paper establishes an actuarial model to measure the reduction and the reduction ratio of pension expenditure before and after the reform. The study found that the reduction of pension expenses increases with the retirement of workers year after year, and the maximum reduction is achieved when all the “newcomers” and “newcomers” retire; the reduction ratio is slightly reduced and relatively stable year by year. Evidently, the reform can reduce the fiscal expenditure on pensions and achieve a smooth transition of pensions, which plays a positive role in coping with the pressure of pensions expenditure caused by population aging.