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本文拓展了Fally(2012)基于单国(区域)投入产出模型测度生产分割的生产阶段数概念。在全球投入产出模型框架下,把全球生产阶段数分解为国内生产阶段数和国际生产阶段数,并利用1995~2011年全球投入产出表进行测算和对其影响因素进行实证分析,研究表明:(1)中国产业部门的生产分割长度都出现了大幅上升,尤其中国制造业的生产结构复杂度日益增加,国际和国内外包呈互补关系;(2)中国生产分割长度呈阶段性变化趋势,加入WTO后,生产分割长度迅速增加,尤其是国际生产分割程度迅速提高,但2008年金融危机后中国生产分割长度出现了短暂性的下降;(3)美日等发达国家的制造业国内生产阶段数的下降幅度略大于国际生产阶段数上升幅度,导致其全球生产阶段数有所下降,美日等国家制造业外迁趋势明显,国际和国内外包呈替代关系;(4)研发强度、资本密集程度、经济(人口)规模与整体生产分割长度具有正向关系,私人部门信贷量占比变量与整体生产分割长度负相关,而高技术能力劳动力占比、服务业增加值占比等变量对整体国内和国际生产分割长度影响方向各异。
This paper extends Fally (2012) to measure the number of production stages based on a single country (region) input-output model. Under the framework of global input-output model, the number of global production stages is decomposed into the number of domestic production stages and the number of international production stages. The global input-output tables from 1995 to 2011 are used for the calculation and empirical analysis of the influencing factors. : (1) The length of production division in China’s industrial sector has risen sharply. In particular, the manufacturing structure of China’s manufacturing industry has been increasing in complexity with the complement of international and domestic outsourcing. (2) The length of China’s production division has been changing step by step. After the accession to the WTO, the length of production division increased rapidly, especially the degree of international division of production increased rapidly. However, the length of production division in China declined after the financial crisis in 2008. (3) The domestic production of manufacturing in the developed countries such as the United States and Japan The number of the decline slightly larger than the number of international production phase of the increase, resulting in a decline in the number of its global production stage, the United States and Japan and other countries significant trend of manufacturing relocation, international and domestic outsourcing showed a substitution relationship; (4) R & D intensity, capital-intensive The degree of economic (population) size and the overall length of the division of production has a positive relationship between the proportion of private sector credit and the overall production of variable credit Negative correlation length, while the proportion of high-tech workforce capacity, value added services accounted segmentation variables such as the length of the impact on the overall direction of domestic and international production vary.