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近年来,中国与中亚五国经贸合作发展迅速。根据贸易特化系数、恒定市场份额和GM(1,1)三个经济模型对中国与中亚五国农产品贸易比较优势以及影响中国农产品出口增长因素的分析,中国与中亚五国的农业互补性较强,中国农产品在中亚国家具有一定比较优势,尽管存在诸多阻碍出口增长的因素,但双方农产品贸易规模在2020年前仍将保持较快增长态势。为加强中国与中亚国家的农业合作并保持中国农产品出口优势,中国应加强区域合作,利用“丝绸之路经济带”提供的良好契机,找准市场定位,扬长避短。
In recent years, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries has developed rapidly. According to the specialization of trade, the constant market share and the GM (1,1) three economic models, the comparative advantage of agricultural trade between China and five Central Asian countries and the factors influencing the growth of China’s agricultural exports are analyzed. The agricultural complements of China and five Central Asian countries The Chinese agricultural products have comparative advantages in Central Asian countries. Although there are many factors hindering export growth, the scale of agricultural products trade between the two sides will maintain a relatively rapid growth by 2020. In order to strengthen agricultural cooperation between China and Central Asian countries and maintain the advantages of China’s agricultural exports, China should step up regional cooperation and make good use of the opportunity provided by the Silk Road Economic Belt to identify market positions and avoid weaknesses.