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:本文应用时间序列建模方法 ,对反映中国市场经济晴雨表的股市进行了实证研究 ,不仅使用大家熟知的平稳时序建模过程 ,而且更重要的是 ,在考察政府干预——央行降息对股市影响方面 ,这里并未采用以往的假设统计检验 ,而是通过一种定量分析模型——干预模型来进行研究。从而得出与股价、利息率呈反向变动这一理论相吻合的实证结果。
: This paper uses time series modeling method to make an empirical study on the stock market reflecting the barometer of market economy in China. It not only uses the well-known stable time series modeling process, but more importantly, after examining government intervention - the central bank cut interest rates on the stock market Impact, this does not use the previous hypothesis statistical test, but through a quantitative analysis model - the intervention model to conduct research. Thus we can draw an empirical result that is consistent with the theory that the stock price and the interest rate fluctuate in the opposite direction.