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二十一世纪以来,中国工业经济进入了平稳、快速增长时期。与此同时,中国工业经济中的结构性问题也日益凸显,主要表现为产业发展失衡、产业创新能力不足等。其中,产业研发投入不足,知识产出有限,是导致上述结构性问题的重要原因。而产业间的知识溢出则是影响各产业知识产出的重要因素。为此,本文在利用贝叶斯空间层级模型测度中国行业间知识溢出效应的基础上,致力于检验行业间知识溢出对中国产业发展的影响。实证结果显示:行业间知识溢出通过推动各产业的知识生产,能够有效促进产业发展。本文提出,应进一步加大产业,特别是具有较大知识溢出输出效应的基础性产业的研发投入,加快其人力资本开发和积累,以促进中国产业结构优化升级和长期稳定增长。
Since the 21st century, China’s industrial economy has entered a period of steady and rapid growth. At the same time, the structural problems in China’s industrial economy are also increasingly prominent, mainly manifested in the unbalanced industrial development and the lack of industrial innovation capacity. Among them, insufficient input in R & D and limited knowledge output are the important reasons for the above structural problems. The knowledge spillover among industries is an important factor that affects the output of knowledge in various industries. Therefore, based on the Bayesian Spatial Model to measure the spillover effect of China’s industry, this paper aims to test the impact of knowledge spillover among industries on the development of China’s industry. Empirical results show that knowledge spillover among industries can promote the industrial development effectively by promoting the knowledge production of various industries. This paper proposes that further investment should be made in the R & D of industries, especially basic industries with a large knowledge spillover effect, and to accelerate the development and accumulation of human capital so as to promote the optimization and upgrading of China’s industrial structure and long-term and steady growth.