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水稻白叶枯病是水稻主要病害,历史上几度流行成灾,研究探讨该病发生为害与预测预报,对有效防控该病流行,确保水稻丰收具有重要意义。通过对浙江桐庐1971—2014年和近年温岭、温州多地该病发生流行情况、为害与损失、影响发病流行因素的调查分析,基本探明了水稻白叶枯病的发生历史动态,即20世纪70年代到20世纪末为该病重发流行阶段,进入21世纪以来10多年为偏轻发生为害阶段,近2年病害又趋上升态势;揭示了该病各病情指标与为害损失关系,建立了水稻初发病期、激增期和稳定期为害损失模型,初步提出了该病的防控指标为水稻株发病率5%、叶发病率3%;分析研究了该病发生程度与气候因子关系,组建了中长期预测模型,平均预测准确率达93.18%,为指导病害防治提供了科学依据。
Rice bacterial leaf blight is a major disease of rice. It has been epidemic-prone several times in history. It is of great importance to study the damage and prediction of the disease and to effectively prevent and control the epidemic and ensure the harvest of rice. Through the investigation and analysis of epidemic factors, damage and loss, and epidemic factors in 1971-2014 and recent years in Wenling and Wenzhou in Zhejiang Tonglu, the history of the occurrence of rice bacterial blight was basically ascertained, that is, the 20th century From the 1970s to the end of the 20th century, the epidemic stage of the disease was recurrent. Since the first decade of the 21st century, the stage of partial lightness has been damaged. In the recent two years, the disease tends to rise again. The relationship between disease index and damage was revealed, The initial stage of disease, the stage of aggravation and the stage of steady loss, and initially proposed the disease prevention and control index as 5% of rice plants and 3% of leaf incidence. The relationship between the degree of occurrence and climatic factors was analyzed and established The long-term prediction model, with an average prediction accuracy rate of 93.18%, provides a scientific basis for guiding disease prevention and control.