论文部分内容阅读
为弥补单一模型缺陷,提高预测的可靠性和准确性,提出了煤与瓦斯突出综合预测。根据煤与瓦斯突出的机理,选取模糊数学、灰色理论、物元分析模型、神经网络及支持向量机5种成熟的非线性方法作为综合预测的数学模型,应用灰色关联度模型确定预测指标,建立了基于非线性理论的煤与瓦斯突出综合预测模型。分析了GIS支持下基于非线性理论的煤与瓦斯突出综合预测系统的集成方法及关键技术,开发了快速综合预测系统并进行了应用。研究表明,该系统能够快速预测突出危险性。相比于单一模型,该方法综合了多种数学模型,预测结果具有较高的准确性及可信性。
In order to make up for the single model defects and improve the reliability and accuracy of prediction, a comprehensive prediction of coal and gas outburst is put forward. According to the mechanism of coal and gas outburst, five mature nonlinear methods, such as fuzzy mathematics, gray theory, matter element analysis model, neural network and support vector machine, are selected as the mathematical models of comprehensive prediction. The gray relational degree model is used to determine the prediction index and establish Comprehensive Prediction Model of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on Nonlinear Theory. The integration method and key technologies of coal and gas outburst forecasting system based on nonlinear theory with GIS support are analyzed. A rapid integrated forecasting system is developed and applied. Research shows that the system can quickly predict the outstanding risk. Compared with a single model, the method combines a variety of mathematical models, the prediction results with high accuracy and credibility.