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中国人口结构在未来20年将迎来世代交替,根据国际经验,人口结构的变化将对股市造成影响,本文借鉴美国研究方法,比较中国的中年人口与青年人口比例(MY)和市盈率的变化趋势,得出两者高度相关的结果,分析中国股票市场过去变动的原因,并预测中国股市未来的发展方向,发现企业盈利水平将是未来影响中国股市的重要因素。
According to the international experience, population structure will have an impact on the stock market. This article draws on the research methods of the United States to compare the changes in the ratio of middle-aged population and youth population (MY) and price-earnings ratio in China , Draws highly relevant results between the two, analyzes the reasons for the change in the Chinese stock market in the past, and forecasts the future direction of the Chinese stock market. It is found that the profitability of an enterprise will be an important factor in the future affecting the Chinese stock market.