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目的分析口岸人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染者的流行特征,建立检出率趋势预测灰色模型(GM)。方法以2004—2012年江苏口岸检出的214例HIV感染者及出入境人员为研究对象,在知情同意的基础上进行流行病学调查,明确流行特征,应用灰色系统理论建立口岸艾滋病检出率的预测模型。结果口岸HIV感染者以男性中年人为主,学历层次较低,2004—2012年检出率平均值为总体平衡在0.0002210,需要努力加以控制。经性途径传播是出入境人员主要的HIV传播方式。GM(1,1)预测检出率效果好,2011、2012年检出率分别为0.000246、0.000230,预测检出率分别是0.000210、0.000230,预测准确性高于85%。与实际检出率平均差异为7.48%。结论口岸HIV感染者有其独特的流行病学特征,在GM方法的基础上,要提高社会支持力度,实施唾液快速检测,注重宣传教育的实效性。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in port and to establish a gray model (GM) for predicting the trend of detection rate. Methods 214 cases of HIV-infected persons and entry-exit persons detected in Jiangsu Port from 2004 to 2012 were selected as research subjects. Epidemiological investigation was conducted on the basis of informed consent and the epidemiological characteristics were clarified. The detection rate of AIDS at port was established by using gray system theory Prediction model. Results The population of HIV-infected persons in port was dominated by middle-aged men and had a low level of education. The average detection rate in 2004-2012 was 0.0002210 with an overall balance of 0.0002210, which required efforts to be controlled. Sexual transmission is the main form of HIV transmission among immigration officers. The detection rate of GM (1,1) is good, and the detection rates in 2011 and 2012 are 0.000246 and 0.000230, respectively. The predicted detection rates are 0.000210 and 0.000230 respectively, and the prediction accuracy is higher than 85%. The average difference with the actual detection rate was 7.48%. Conclusion Port HIV infected persons have their own unique epidemiological characteristics. On the basis of GM method, social support should be enhanced and rapid detection of saliva should be implemented, with emphasis on effectiveness of publicity and education.