目的评价宁波市二氧化硫(SO2)污染水平与社区人群上呼吸道疾病发病情况的关系。方法收集2011—2013年宁波市江北区社区卫生服务中心门诊患者资料及同期气象环保资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型分析SO2与上呼吸道疾病门诊量的关联强度,计算超额危险度并估算因SO2暴露而患病的人数。结果研究时限内,宁波市SO2日均浓度未超过国家标准。SO2污染当天浓度与上呼吸道疾病发生的相关系数为0.44,造成上呼吸道疾病发生的超额危险度为10%~18%,滞后天数为4~6天。因SO2污染造成的上呼吸道疾病患者占该类患者总门诊量的30%左右。结论宁波市SO2浓度3年来均未超标,但也导致了上呼吸道疾病的增加,且该影响具有滞后效应。 Objective To evaluate the relationship between the level of SO2 pollution in Ningbo and the incidence of upper respiratory tract diseases in community population. Methods The outpatient data and the meteorological environmental data of community health service centers in Jiangbei District of Ningbo City from 2011 to 2013 were collected. The correlation between SO2 and the outpatient volume of upper respiratory diseases was analyzed using the non-linear model with distributed delay. The excess risk was calculated and the SO2 exposure The number of sick people. Results During the study period, the daily SO2 concentration in Ningbo surpassed the national standards. The correlation coefficient between the concentration of SO2 on the day and the incidence of upper respiratory tract diseases was 0.44, causing the excess risk of upper respiratory diseases to be 10% ~ 18% and the number of lag days was 4-6 days. The upper respiratory tract diseases caused by SO2 pollution account for about 30% of the total outpatient amount of such patients. Conclusion The concentration of SO2 in Ningbo City did not exceed the standard for three years, but it also led to the increase of upper respiratory tract diseases, and the effect had a hysteresis effect.