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笔者使用1990年~2006年HS10分位的贸易数据以及美国对华反倾销产品层面的数据,采用绘图法考察了美国对华反倾销对中国对美出口风险率的影响,结果表明:美国对华反倾销政策在初裁定阶段显著提高了其对美出口风险率,在终裁定阶段对出口风险率的影响不明显;中位数以下的反倾销税率对出口风险率的提高效应不大,但影响时间长,中位数以上的反倾销税率刚好相反,在初裁定阶段大幅度提高了其出口风险率,在终裁定阶段反而降低了出口风险率;美国对华反倾销政策对钢铁业、化工业以及机电业三大行业初裁定阶段出口风险率的提高效应非常大。
Using the trade data of HS10 quantile from 1990 to 2006 as well as the data of the anti-dumping products of the United States against China, the author investigates the impact of anti-dumping by the United States on the export risk rate of China to the United States using graphical method. The results show that the anti-dumping policy At the initial determination stage, the risk of export to the United States was significantly increased, and the impact on the export risk rate was not obvious in the final adjudication phase. The anti-dumping duties below the median had little effect on the increase of the export risk rate, but the impact was long, The anti-dumping duty rate above the digit was just the opposite. In the preliminary determination stage, the export risk rate was greatly increased and the export risk rate was reduced at the final ruling stage. The anti-dumping policy of the United States against the steel, chemical and electromechanical industries The effect of increasing the export risk rate at the initial decision stage is very large.