本文主要介绍了一个预测长期滨线侵蚀的概率分布的方法。它把一段时间内滨线的动力响应作为随时间变化的随机体系。系统输入的是长期的波候和滨线特征 ,输出的是在任何时间内滨线后退最远的概率分布情况。这一方法考虑了沉积物的沿岸输送和垂岸输送对滨线侵蚀的共同作用 ,因为 This paper mainly introduces a method to predict the probability distribution of long-term coastal erosion. It takes the dynamic response of the shoreline over a period of time as a stochastic system that varies over time. The system inputs the long-term waviness and coastline features and outputs the probability distribution that the farthest coast recedes at any time. This approach takes into account the combined effects of coastal transport of sediments and shore-based transport on coastal erosion because