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我国LPG供需区域不平衡,产生了“北气南运”的海运需求。影响LPG海运需求的因素众多,采用定量与定性相结合的方法,分析了我国LPG海运需求的变化趋势。建立了BP神经网络模型,以北方LPG产量、南方LPG消费量和LPG进口量为输入神经元,以LPG“北气南运”运出量及海运需求为输出神经元。对于未引入模型的其他影响因素(替代能源天然气的利用、LPG作为化工原料使用)进行定性分析,进而对定量预测结果加以修正。研究结果表明:2011-2015年,我国LPG“北气南运”的海运需求将呈现递减趋势。
China’s LPG supply and demand region is unbalanced, resulting in the “North Gas Nan Yun ” shipping demand. There are many factors that affect the demand of LPG seaborne. By using the method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, the changing trend of the demand of LPG seaborne in China is analyzed. A BP neural network model was established, in which the output of LPG, the output of LPG in the north and the import of LPG in the south were taken as input neurons. For qualitative analysis of other factors not introduced into the model (the use of alternative energy and natural gas, LPG as a chemical raw material), the quantitative prediction result is corrected. The results show that from 2011 to 2015, China’s LPG “North Gas South Yun ” shipping demand will show a decreasing trend.