论文部分内容阅读
近期,本栏连续对“循环周期”展开研讨,主题是全球经济及金融市场的周期性规律。内容主要有:康迪拉耶夫长波理论、库滋涅茨建筑周期、贾格拉周期、季辛周期等。虽然作为经济学上的经济理论,但应用于证券金融市场具有非凡的预言作用,而国内证券金融领域尚未有相关的专业研究及此方面的讨论。本系列的第一部分,主要介绍长波理论,分别从长波的原理、构成、历史印证,以及从利率、商品、股市等走势规律验证这一理论真义,并尝试对中国股市的历史及未来长波作出探索,其意义是为读者了解这一重要周期理论与金融市场的相关性外,还可以作为一项市场周期预测来研习。
Recently, this column continues to discuss the “cycle”, the theme is the cyclical law of the global economy and financial markets. The main contents are: Kondilayev theory of long wave, Kuznets building cycle, Jagra cycle, quarter symplectic cycle and so on. Although used as an economic theory in economics, it has an extraordinary predictive effect in securities and financial markets. However, there is no relevant professional research and discussion in this field in domestic securities and finance. The first part of this series mainly introduces the theory of longwave, which verifies the theory’s true meaning from the principle of longwave, composition and historical evidence, as well as from the trend of interest rate, commodity and stock market, and attempts to make a longwave on the history of China’s stock market and the future Exploration, the significance of the reader is aware of this important cycle theory and the relevance of financial markets, but also can be used as a prediction of the market cycle to learn.