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根据系统在研制期间故障强度变化规律,考虑故障间隔时间影响的情况下,提出了广义可靠性增长评估模型,分析了其参数特性,并给出了拟合优度检验方法;然后,给出了定时截尾和定数截尾情况下,模型参数的极大似然估计公式,采用Simpson方法将积分函数化为求和函数,使得参数估计计算方便,给出了趋势检验方法给出了可靠性增长评估公式;最后,结合发动机故障数据进行了的实例分析,结果表明,模型对试验数据拟合较好,评估结果符合工程实际,模型具有实际应用价值.
According to the variation regularity of fault strength during development and considering the influence of fault time interval, a generalized reliability growth assessment model is proposed, its parameter characteristics are analyzed, and the goodness of fit test is given. Then, Time truncation and censoring, the maximum likelihood estimation formula of the model parameters is adopted, and Simpson method is used to integrate the integral function into the summation function, which makes the parameter estimation easy to calculate, and gives the trend test method to give the reliability growth Finally, the case analysis based on the engine fault data is carried out. The results show that the model fits well to the experimental data and the evaluation result accords with the actual project. The model has practical value.