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美国“新经济”于 2001年3月陷入衰退。本文围绕这次衰退,分析和探讨了3个问题:如何看待美国经济的这次衰退?造成这次衰退的内在原因是什么?影响美国经济走出衰退的因素有哪些?主要观点是:从经济发展规律来看,这次衰退是美国“新经济”一个正常的调整阶段,其本身并不意味着“新经济”的失败。这次衰退的深层次原因在于美国经济内部存在3大隐患:债务过高而储蓄过低;经常项目长期巨额逆差;金融市场盈利率远远超出企业实际生产能力。当前影响美国经济走出衰退的两个关键因十是:消费者信心和投资者信心。
The United States “New Economy” plunged into recession in March 2001. In this paper, we analyze and discuss three issues around this recession: How do we view this recession in the U.S. economy? What are the underlying causes of this recession? What are the major factors that have contributed to the U.S. economy out of recession? The main points are: From economic development By law, this recession is a normal phase of adjustment for the “new economy” in the United States. It does not in itself mean a failure of the “new economy.” The deep-seated reason for this recession is that there are three major hidden dangers in the U.S. economy: excess debt and low savings; long-term huge current account deficits; and financial market profitability far beyond the actual production capacity of enterprises. Two key factors currently affecting the U.S. economy from recession are consumer confidence and investor confidence.