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本文运用Arellano和Bond首创的动态面板数据方法考察了人口年龄结构和人口流动对中国贸易收支的影响。结果表明,差分广义矩法估计所采用的工具变量表现良好,差分方程得到的残差服从AR(1)过程,过度识别条件成立。人口抚育负担的降低、人口的跨地区跨行业流动对贸易顺差有着积极显著的影响。然而,由于劳动力转移方式的差异,不同时间区段的子样本回归结果之间不尽相同。
This paper uses the dynamic panel data method pioneered by Arellano and Bond to examine the influence of population age structure and population flow on China’s trade balance. The results show that the tool variables used in the differential GMM estimation perform well. The residue obtained by the difference equation obeys the AR(1) process and the over recognition condition is established. The decrease in the burden of population rearing and the cross-regional cross-industry mobility of the population have a positive and significant impact on the trade surplus. However, due to the difference in labor transfer methods, the subsample regression results at different time segments are not the same.