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目的预测门诊量,为医院门诊工作的管理决策提供科学依据。方法选取某院5年门诊诊次资料,计算各月季节比率,采用最小二乘法拟合直线趋势方程,进行趋势预测,以95%的置信度进行区间预测。结果通过季节趋势预测,得到该院2010年各月门诊诊次的点估计值和区间预测值。结论趋势季节预测方法对有针对性的加强门诊工作有参考价值。
Objective To predict the outpatient volume and provide a scientific basis for the management decision of hospital outpatient work. Methods The outpatient clinic data of a hospital for 5 years were selected to calculate the season ratio of each month. The least squares method was used to fit the linear trend equation and the trend prediction was made. Interval prediction was carried out with 95% confidence. Results According to the seasonal trend forecast, the point estimate and interval forecast of outpatient visits in each month of the hospital in 2010 were obtained. Conclusion The trend season prediction method has reference value for the targeted strengthening of outpatient work.