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当前,地方政府对保障房建设的财政资金稳定性不足,比重偏低,虽然进行了吸引民间资金参建保障房的新模式尝试,但是面对项目亏损的风险,民间资本介入意愿低。为了预测在公共租赁房建设中的盈亏,本文采用BOT融资模式,建立了公租房建设中的融资数学模型,以浙江省教育发展中心拟建设的高校人才公租房项目为例,分析与公租房工程有关的各种确定性和不确定性影响因素,给出了不同贷款利率下投资回收期曲线,可应用于实际工程的投资盈亏预测,为降低民间资本投入保障房建设的风险提供一些理论依据。
At present, the local government has insufficient stability and low proportion of the financial funds for the protection of housing construction. Although a new mode of attracting non-governmental funds to participate in the construction of affordable housing has been tried, the willingness of private capital to intervene is low due to the risk of project losses. In order to predict the profit and loss in the construction of public rental housing, this paper uses the BOT financing model to establish a mathematical model of financing for public rental housing construction. Taking the public rental housing project of colleges and universities to be constructed by Zhejiang Education Development Center as an example, Relevant uncertainties and determinants of various factors, given the different loan interest rates under the investment recovery curve can be applied to the actual project investment profit and loss forecast, to reduce the private capital investment in the protection of housing construction risk to provide some theoretical basis.