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基于我国和8个最主要贸易伙伴国数据,构造新的外国实际有效汇率指数和外国国民收入,估计了进口和出口商品模型。JJ协整表明,马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,实际汇率升值会减少贸易收支差额。脉冲响应图表明,我国进口存在J曲线效应,而出口并不存在。动态影响分析表明,实际汇率升值大多会减少出口和进口,对出口的影响更大,对贸易收支差额的总影响也为负。实证结果对我国贸易收支差额的预测与实际情况相吻合。我们应该增加国内最终私人消费需求,让人民币持续渐进地升值,加大产业结构的调整,转变出口商品的结构,以平衡贸易收支。
Based on the data from China and the eight most important trading partners, we constructed a new foreign real effective exchange rate index and foreign national income, and estimated the import and export commodity models. The JJ cointegration shows that when the Marshall-Lerner condition is established, an appreciation of the real exchange rate will reduce the trade balance. Impulse response diagram shows that there is a J-curve effect in China’s imports, while exports do not exist. Dynamic impact analysis shows that the real appreciation of the exchange rate will mostly reduce exports and imports, which will have a greater impact on exports and a negative impact on the trade balance. Empirical results of China’s trade balance of payments forecast and the actual situation is consistent. We should increase domestic final private consumption demand, allow the RMB to appreciate gradually and gradually, increase the adjustment of industrial structure, and change the structure of export commodities so as to balance trade balance.