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目的:结合新型农村合作医疗发展评价要素对我国四大区域(东、中、西及东北部)2007—2012年间新农合发展历程给予系统动力学比较及评价。方法:确定新农合评价要素的计量关系并设计系统动力学模型,模拟各区域新农合发展变化指数及其相对比值。结果:近年间各区域新农合指数相对值落差逐渐缩小,说明其发展不均衡态总体减弱;新农合人均筹资额大幅增加(从52元/人至340元/人),支付筹资比基本持平在较高比例(90%左右),累计结余率除东部地区外缓慢上升。结论:扩充筹资规模,提高资金利用率,是进一步缩小地区差异、提高区域新农合发展水平的切实措施。
OBJECTIVE: To compare and evaluate the system dynamics of the new rural cooperative medical system in China’s four major regions (east, central, western and northeastern China) from 2007 to 2012 based on the evaluation factors of the development of new rural cooperative medical system. Methods: To determine the measurement relationship of NCMS evaluation elements and to design a system dynamics model to simulate the change index and its relative ratio of NCMS in different regions. Results: In recent years, the gap between the relative values of NCMS in all regions gradually decreased, which indicated that the unbalanced development generally weakened. The per capita NCMS increased significantly (from RMB 52 / person to RMB 340 / person) At a relatively high level (around 90%), the accumulated surplus rate has risen slowly except in the east. Conclusion: Expanding the scale of fund-raising and raising the utilization rate of funds are practical measures to further reduce regional differences and improve the level of development of new rural cooperative medical units in the region.