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中美两国贸易逆差是中美经济和政治外交博弈互动的结果,并由中美两国经济内生力量和政治外交力量共同决定。实证模型表明:(1)中美两国贸易逆差扩大是两国外交重要的驱动力量;(2)中美两国总外交具有缩小贸易逆差、平衡两国贸易的效应,而中美两国双边访问、双边协商和外交声明的贸易平衡效应具有边际不对称性和时滞性;(3)中美两国贸易逆差历史积累具有逆差扩张效应;(4)中美两国贸易逆差的变动由逆差自身扩张效应和外交平衡效应共同决定,但起主要作用的是经济内生逆差积累扩张效应;(5)中美两国可以积极发展外交和调整外交组合模式,调节两国贸易逆差,但不能从根本上解决两国贸易不平衡问题。
The trade deficit between China and the United States is the result of the game interaction between the two countries in the economic and political diplomacy. It is jointly determined by the economic endogenous forces and the political and diplomatic forces of China and the United States. The empirical model shows that: (1) the expansion of the trade deficit between China and the United States is an important driving force for diplomacy between the two countries; (2) the total diplomatic relations between China and the United States have the effect of reducing the trade deficit and balancing the trade between the two countries; (3) the historical accumulation of the trade deficit between China and the United States has the effect of deficit expansion; (4) the change in the trade deficit between China and the United States is determined by the deficit (5) Both China and the United States can actively develop diplomacy and adjust their diplomatic model to adjust the trade deficit between the two countries, but not from Fundamentally solve the trade imbalance between the two countries.