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本文在总结国外相关文献的基础上,运用内生划分非线性效应区制的方法,即马尔科夫区制转移模型对中国政府支出和税收的非线性效应进行经验检验。结果表明,中国财政政策具有显著的非线性效应:政府消费在1978～1980和1984～1997年对私人消费产生显著非凯恩斯影响。在相同时期,税收对私人消费也存在非凯恩斯影响,但并不显著。政府投资对私人消费不存在非线性效应,但存在非对称影响。同时,本文对国外文献总结的财政政策非线性效应的产生原因进行检验,发现初始财政条件和财政调整幅度等因素不能很好地解释中国财政政策非线性效应。最后本文从非瓦尔拉斯均衡理论出发分析了非线性效应产生的原因。
Based on the summarization of relevant foreign literature, this paper uses the endogenous nonlinear effect zoning method, that is, the Markov Regime transfer model to test the non-linear effect of Chinese government expenditure and taxation. The results show that China’s fiscal policy has a significant non-linear effect: government spending has a significant non-Keynesian effect on private consumption during 1978-1980 and 1984-1997. In the same period, non-Keynesian effects of taxation on private consumption also exist, but not significantly. There is no non-linear effect of government investment on private consumption, but there are asymmetric effects. At the same time, this paper tests the causes of non-linear effects of fiscal policy summarized in foreign literature and finds that the initial fiscal conditions and the fiscal adjustment range and other factors can not explain China’s non-linear fiscal policy. Finally, this paper analyzes the causes of non-linear effects from the non-Walrasian equilibrium theory.