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揭示全球气候变化对贵州省径流模数潜在影响可为该区优化配置水资源、确定水土保持治理的重点区域以及减少由降雨季节性分布不均引发旱涝灾害提供依据。该文以贵州省22个主要气象和水文站的降雨和径流等资料为基础,建立降雨和径流之间的统计关系。采用DELTA方法,根据HadCM3模型对A2情景(人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢)和B2情景(强调社会技术创新)下输出的不同时期的降雨量以及实测的贵州省降雨量和径流模数资料,推算出贵州省2006-2035年、2036-2065年和2066-2095年前后两个时期之间径流模数的增减量;研究结果为:A2和B2情景下未来3个时期径流模数逐渐增大,相对于基准期1961-1990年最大增幅分别达17.52%和10.58%。不同情景和不同时期径流模数变化的空间分布差异较大,A2情景下径流模数的变化比B2情景下更为剧烈。在贵州省石漠化严重的地区,当径流增加较多时,不仅需要考虑水资源的充分合理利用,还需兼顾防止水土流失的加剧。
It is revealed that the potential impact of global climate change on runoff modulus in Guizhou Province may provide the basis for optimizing the allocation of water resources, determining the key areas for soil and water conservation and reducing the drought and flood disasters caused by the seasonal distribution of rainfall. Based on the data of rainfall and runoff from 22 major meteorological and hydrological stations in Guizhou Province, this paper establishes the statistical relationship between rainfall and runoff. Using DELTA method, HadCM3 model is used to calculate the precipitation in different periods under the A2 scenario (rapid population growth and slow economic development) and B2 scenario (emphasizing social and technological innovation) and the measured precipitation and runoff data in Guizhou Province The results show that the runoff modulus increases in the next three periods under the A2 and B2 scenarios, and the increase and decrease of the runoff modulus between the two periods of 2006-2035, 2036-2065 and 2066-2095 are as follows: , Compared with the maximum increase of 19.52% and 10.58% respectively from 1961-1990. The spatial distribution of runoff modulus varies greatly in different scenarios and periods, and the change of runoff modulus in A2 scenario is more severe than in B2 scenario. In the areas where the rocky desertification in Guizhou Province is serious, when the runoff increases more, it is not only necessary to consider the full and reasonable utilization of water resources, but also to prevent the aggravation of soil and water loss.