【摘 要】
：
理解个体如何贴现环境风险具有重要的政策涵义。基于概率-时间权衡模型,扩展经典的拉姆齐方程得到描述性的环境贴现率模型,容纳个体对于时间内在不确定性的认知。模型为理解
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理解个体如何贴现环境风险具有重要的政策涵义。基于概率-时间权衡模型,扩展经典的拉姆齐方程得到描述性的环境贴现率模型,容纳个体对于时间内在不确定性的认知。模型为理解人们的环境风险评价方式提供了一个分析框架,能够刻画环境风险态度的异质性,与相关理论及实验结论一致。分析模型结构与参数的经济意义,揭示个体环境风险判断的冲突性心理因素,结合现实阐述了模型对于环境风险沟通和环境教育的政策指导作用。
Understanding how individuals discount environmental risks has important policy implications. Based on the probability-time trade-off model, extending the classical Ramsey equation gives a descriptive environmental discount rate model that accommodates individuals’ perception of uncertainty over time. The model provides an analytical framework for understanding people’s environmental risk assessment methods, which can describe the heterogeneity of environmental risk attitudes and is consistent with relevant theoretical and experimental conclusions. The economic significance of the structure and parameters of the model is analyzed to reveal the conflicting psychological factors of individual environmental risk judgments. The policy guiding role of the model on environmental risk communication and environmental education is expounded with the reality.
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