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寨卡病毒病在全球多地流行,可致小头畸形、格林-巴利综合征等神经系统疾病.2016年1~2月我国内地发现输入性病例10例,未发生本地传播.为明确2016年3~12月该病输入我国内地和传播的风险,根据我国内地登革热输入和传播规律、人员往来、伊蚊活动、人群密度等资料,通过定性和定量的风险评估,本文认为,我国内地将会继续发现输入性病例,如果2016年东南亚不流行,则预测2016年3~12月我国内地可能发现输入病例为8~68例;如果东南亚也出现类似往年登革热一样的流行规模,则预测2016年3~12月我国内地可能发现输入性病例为106~876例.6~10月是发生本地传播最有可能的时间;广东、云南、海南、福建、广西和浙江等省区是最可能发生本地传播的地区,其余有白纹伊蚊的省市可能出现本地传播,内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、青海、宁夏、新疆等省区和辽宁、陕西、甘肃、西藏无伊蚊分布地区,全年均不会发生本地传播.建议各地继续做好输入性病例的监测,有本地传播风险的地区需加强蚊媒监测和控制,做好我国内地赴疫区旅行人员的健康提示,并根据国际疫情和研究进展动态开展风险评估.
Zika virus disease is endemic in the world and can cause nervous system diseases such as microcephaly, Guillain-Barre syndrome, etc. In January-February 2016, 10 cases of imported cases were found in Mainland China, and no local transmission occurred. According to the input and propagation of dengue in the Mainland, personnel exchanges, Aedes mosquito activity, population density and other information, through the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, this paper believes that the Mainland will We will continue to find cases of imported sex. If the prevalence of non-epidemics in Southeast Asia in 2016 is expected, from March to December 2016, a total of 8 to 68 imported cases may be found in the Mainland of China. If the epidemic scale is similar to that of dengue fever in previous years in Southeast Asia, From March to December, there may be 106-876 cases of imported cases in Mainland China. The most likely time of local spread occurred from June to October; the most likely local provinces were Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang The remaining areas with Aedes albopictus may be spread locally. Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other provinces and autonomous regions and Liaoning, Shaanxi, Gansu and Tibet without Iraq It is recommended that all localities should continue to monitor imported cases, strengthen the monitoring and control of mosquito vectors in areas with local spread risks, do a good job in providing health tips to travelers traveling to affected areas in mainland China, And carry out risk assessment on the basis of international epidemic situation and research progress.