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国际油价经过连续几个月的大幅下跌之后,可以说目前市场已将利空消息做了较为充分的吸收。如若全球金融市场及实体经济没有受到新一轮的冲击,则可以说油价短期大幅下滑的可能性较小。同时,在没有看到金融危机见底的时候,油价也很难大幅上涨,上行限于反弹范畴。所以,接下来一段时间国际油价可能会结束之前连续下跌的方式,以振荡的方式寻底并力图企稳。预计2009年油价运行区间在50～90美元/桶,全年均价55～65美元/桶。
After a sharp drop in international oil prices for several months, we can say that the market has absorbed the bad news. If the global financial markets and the real economy have not been hit by the new round of shocks, it can be said that there is a small chance of a sharp drop in oil prices in the short run. At the same time, it is difficult for oil prices to rise sharply without seeing the financial crisis bottom out. The upside is limited to the rebound category. Therefore, the next period of time the international oil prices may fall before the end of the way to find the way to oscillation and trying to stabilize. Estimated operating range of oil prices in 2009 was 50 ~ 90 US dollars / barrel, the annual average price of 55 to 65 US dollars / barrel.